Can You Determine Lottery Probability in Excel?.

How to Create a Lottery Prediction Algorithm in Excel.

How Does the Lottery Prediction Algorithm Work?.

We of course have used this formula to create the correct stake for all other values in between or even higher. The scaled bets are worked out on the basis that we would place a 20 unit bet on a selection with odds of 2.0 and a 2 unit bet on a selection that has odds of 20.0.

By scaling the odds we minimise the variance as we lose a much smaller stake on the higher odds bet and this has had the effect of not only making the maximum loss lower, it also has made the current profit higher! Due to the low chance of the very high odds bets coming in, it's possible to have long and expensive bad runs if you don't hit a winner.

This is because you are placing a 10 stake on a 2.0 odds bet as well as on a 25.0 odds bet. One thing that should be fairly obvious from the graphs is the flat 10 stake has a higher max loss point and a lower max win point.

Looking at our results below you can see we didn't get off to a particularly good start and this may just be down to bad luck or it could be the AI model has improved since we first started tracking results. Remember, even the ones with a very high AI Value score often stand a fairly small chance of winning, so make sure you adjust stakes to compensate for this.

These value bets should be used to give you some ideas about teams which may be over priced and then you should do your own research to find out what bets are best. It's important to note, this is very different from thinking that these predictions will win more than the other selections, it's purely looking for the best long term value.īy the very nature of value bets they tend to be on outsiders with higher priced odds, which means their chance of winning is often fairly low, even though they may represent good value. We then compare this chance to the current bookmakers odds to give you a list of all the bets our AI algorithm thinks are over priced. Our machine learning algorithm uses data from the last 10+ years to estimate the likelihood of a bets happening.

Ai and odds in a spread sheet